Xi Jinping on the front page

Data doesn't support alarmist headlines of Xi's demise

Recently, there has been speculation that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, might be on his way out.

One US think tank, for example, writes that “Speculation is growing about a power struggle at the top of the Party” (link) and a professor argues that “this powerful decision-making body [the politburo] is making a veiled threat against Xi for holding on to too much power” (link). An opinion piece in the New York Post recently asked whether “Xi Jinping is on his way out” (link), and Newsweek also discusses the topic here. It’s not all alarmist, of course, and more balanced analyses have been published, too, such as here and here.

It’s not new that the global “China watching” community speculates about developments in elite politics. One of many examples is that there were rumors of a coup in China in 2022.

What makes such rumors so hard to evaluate is that China’s political system, particularly as it pertains to elite politics, is incredibly opaque and does not like to “explain itself.” Many rumors and analyses are hard to verify as a result and, therefore, tend to be backed by little ‘hard’ data beyond personnel changes and the front pages of state newspapers. This makes it hard to reject (as well as fully embrace) the rumors.

It’s furthermore easy to overinterpret small changes in front-page coverage, such as when Xi Jinping is (not) discussed on the front pages for a handful of days. (We would think that Xi Jinping, like everybody else, will take a few days of vacation on occasion and might sometimes feel a bit under the weather).

At Exante Data, we arguably don’t specialize in Chinese elite politics, and this article should be viewed in that context. But to fill a tiny part of the data vacuum on Chinese elite politics, we have begun to systematically track what is mentioned on the front page of the People’s Daily. The newspaper is arguably the most authoritative state-owned newspaper in China, and should be seen as an outlet for the Chinese Communist Party to communicate with itself as well as outsiders.

Recently, the level of mentions of Xi Jinping on the front page of the People’s Daily has been normal when compared to the range seen since 2021. We show this in the chart below.

Another takeaway from the chart below is that there is substantial cyclicality in mentions, which means that it’s entirely normal for mentions of Xi Jinping to vary and at times be low. Our analytical baseline should, therefore, be that it doesn’t tell us much when Xi Jinping is missing from the front page for a week or two.

At the same time, the smoothing in the chart also tells us that, across any four weeks, Xi Jinping has been mentioned at least ten times per day on average during 2021-2025. A meaningful drop below such a level should therefore raise the possibility that the decline isn’t noise.

Another way to look at the same data is to consider the cumulative year-to-date number of mentions. This is shown below. Here, too, mentions of “Xi Jinping” look entirely normal and almost exactly in line with 2021 levels (though lower than 2022-2024 levels).

Another point here is that the quantity of coverage of Xi Jinping has been rather similar during 2021-2025. The highest level of coverage (7,618 mentions in 2023) is just 22% above the 6,250 mentions in 2021. The rather minor variation in coverage of Xi Jinping could, perhaps, also mean that front-page coverage doesn’t tell us much about variations in ‘elite power’ (however defined).

For macro analysts, however, it might be more helpful to use the data to gauge which topics are being emphasized on the front page of the People’s Daily, as this might tell us something about economic policy priorities. Recently, there has been an increase in emphasis on consumption as well as the property market, though less forcefully than was the case in Q1.

The content in this piece is partly based on proprietary analysis that Exante Data does for institutional clients as part of its full macro strategy and flow analytics services. The content offered here differs significantly from Exante Data’s full service and is less technical as it aims to provide a more medium-term policy relevant perspective. The opinions and analytics expressed in this piece are those of the author alone and may not be those of Exante Data Inc. or Exante Advisors LLC. The content of this piece and the opinions expressed herein are independent of any work Exante Data Inc. or Exante Advisors LLC does and communicates to its clients.

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